PEMODELAN NONLINIER DAMPAK UPAH MINIMUM TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP) and the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in West Sumatra Province from 2008 to 2024 using an OLS-based quadratic regression model. The data used are secondary data from 2008 to 2024, obtained from publications of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of West Sumatra Province. The results indicate that the quadratic regression model, namely: TPT=11.43-4.888x10-6(UMP)+1.048x10-12(UMP2) is statistically significant and explains 81.21% of the variation in the TPT. The coefficients for the UMP and UMP² are significant at the 5% significance level, demonstrating a nonlinear, U-shaped relationship between the UMP and the TPT. The turning point was reached at the UMP of Rp 2,332,284, marking the point at which an increase in the UMP no longer decreases the TPT but instead begins to increase unemployment. This finding indicates that the UMP policy needs to consider productivity and labor market conditions so as not to exceed wage levels that could trigger an increase in unemployment